Nifty gained the most in the one-week pre-budget rally as compared to the last 9 budgets as investors remained optimistic about pro-market policies by the Finance Minister Arun Jaitley in Union Budget 2017.
With Budget 2017 four days away, Nifty rallied 3.5% for the week, its highest weekly gain since May 27. The index has gained 6% in the year so far.
Even though, not every Budget 2017 is preceded by a pre-budget rally, this year bulls have tightened their grip as government is expected to take measures to boost demand after the demonetization freeze.
The previous biggest pre-budget rally occurred in the election year 2009, during the interim-Budget, when the index rose nearly 4% in the week prior to it. Last year, the 50-share index had lost 2.5%.
Jimeet Modi, CEO, SAMCO Securities believes the market movement in the run-up to Budget depend more on the underlying market conditions, not so much on budget events per se.
“History suggests that 70% of the time budgets are in line with the underlying market moods, however during other 30% of time markets have turned due to budget events. In reality such turns are caused due the inherent overbought or oversold conditions of the market itself,” said Modi.
“In 2016, there was nothing so great about the budget, but still the indices started to rise smartly because they were in deep oversold conditions. Similarly in 2015 budget, there was nothing really bad about the first budget of the Modi government, but still the markets made a top and started to roll down because inherently it was heavily overbought mesmerized in too much optimism,” he added.